The UKMO errors in forecasting Leon–Eline were about average for SWIO storm forecasts for the previous season, and the model showed skill over CLIPER forecasts (Heming 2001). Rep. 342, 14 pp. 9a, and these SSTs were above average for both January and February (Figs. On Mauritius, the cyclone produced wind gusts of 137 km/h (85 mph), along with heavy rainfall that peaked at 405 mm (15.9 in) at Sans Souci. The heavy rainfall and floods over the northeastern Interior of South Africa during February 2000. 0000015911 00000 n Corresponding author address: Dr. Chris Reason, Dept. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, An Analysis of Subdaily Severe Thunderstorm Probabilities for the United States, Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Snow Water Equivalent and Its Link with Temperature in Selected SubX Models, Configuration of Statistical Postprocessing Techniques for Improved Low-Level Wind Speed Forecasts in West Texas, Topographic Rainfall of Tropical Cyclones past a Mountain Range as Categorized by Idealized Simulations, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2, 10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2. Eline was the longest-lived tropical storm observed in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) to date, had an unusually zonal track, and penetrated exceptionally far inland over the interior plateau of southern Africa. Climate, 7 , 929–948. A study of climate and weather variability over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean. A scale vector of 200 g kg− 1 m s−1 is shown. This tropical trough evolved ahead of a cold front approaching the far southwest coast from the South Atlantic, and these two systems formed a tropical–extratropical cloud band on 29 February and 1 March (Fig. 11c. of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa. Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: A reflection on underlying processes. 8a) looks similar over southern Africa to the summer climatology except that there was enhanced convergence over northern Namibia–southeastern Angola. 4b–e, 6). The 26 February– 1 March pentad (Fig. The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. The 0200 and 0400 UTC 25 February bulletins repeated these warnings and noted that although the storm was weakening over Botswana and rainfall over northeastern South Africa should moderate, heavy rains should still be expected that day. Rep. 342, 14 pp. J. Climatol, 11 , 877–888. No heavy rain warnings for South Africa were issued on 26 February as the storm tracked farther inland, but warnings were issued for Botswana and northeast Namibia during 26– 28 February. 1996), Meteosat images obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and synoptic charts from the then South African Weather Bureau (SAWB) to analyze the penetration of Eline into southern Africa. Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. Relief reaches Zimbabwe's cyclone survivors as death toll rises | … Northern Namibia received significant rainfall (regional average over 10 mm) on 27 February (Fig. Eline also killed 12 people in Zimbabwe and 21 people in South Africa. The storm had earlier caused destruction in Mozambique A tropical storm has swept away bridges and homes in eastern Zimbabwe, killing at least 24 people, officials say. 0000030655 00000 n A significant gap exists between Pietersburg and the next station to the north, Harare (18.3°S, 31.1°E), where at most one sounding per day is made, depending on resources. This may be something that could be implemented by forecast offices with more resources, for example, RSMC La Réunion. 1 as well as information about local forecasts and observations during Eline. (a)–(h) Daily interpolated outgoing longwave radiation (contour interval 30 W m−2) from NCEP–NCAR for various days between 22 Feb and 1 Mar. Southern Africa is prone to devastating flood and drought episodes and pronounced climate variability on a range of scales, the coefficient of annual rainfall variation being greatest in southern Namibia. NWP Gazette, 1 (2) 3–8. 9b,c) in January and February, favoring storm genesis. At 0400 UTC 29 February, the SAWB issued a heavy rain warning for central and southeast Namibia, timely given that this was the wettest day of the entire summer. Zimbabwe and Malawi. trailer << /Size 360 /Info 313 0 R /Root 335 0 R /Prev 536193 /ID[<2f799876b8a47f85ab14491aa176176b>] >> startxref 0 %%EOF 335 0 obj << /Pages 332 0 R /Type /Catalog /Metadata 333 0 R >> endobj 358 0 obj << /S 1395 /Filter /FlateDecode /Length 359 0 R >> stream Cyclone Idai triggered floods in J. Volume, heat and freshwater transports of the global ocean circulation 1993–2000, estimated from a general circulation model constrained by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) data. Cyclone has left a trail of destruction and now UNICEF says it needs about 30 million U.S. dollars to restore the three affected countries. Weather forecasting elsewhere in southern Africa tends to rely on European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) or UKMO products combined with manual analyses based on any available local station data, and these forecasts are not archived. 1). 8b), and southern Namibia was relatively dry. Like pentad 1, the cyclonic feature is not only intensified relative to the mean but also shifted south over Namibia, reflecting the presence of ex-Eline itself. Shading denotes values more than or equal to 152 dam in (a) and positive anomalies in (b), Latent heat flux anomalies (contour interval of 20 W m−2) for (a) Dec 1999, (b) Jan 2000, and (c) 11–20 Feb 2000 (the 10 days prior to Eline approaching Mozambique). The cyclone affected the eastern and … 2002) show positive anomalies of 30%–100% across much of southern Africa in December 1999 and January 2000, indicating that the vegetation was substantially greener than average. Relatively strong midlevel easterlies (Figs. La Réunion issued storm and gale warnings well after the storm had tracked inland from the coast and out of their area of responsibility; these were used by the Mozambique and South African forecast offices, which issued warnings during 22–25 February. SST anomalies during early 2000 were similar to the composite with the important exception of warm SST anomalies in both the Mozambique Channel and north and northeast of Madagascar (Figs. } The move in June 1998 of Meteosat-5 to above 63°E instead of 0° has been of great benefit for TC monitoring since INSAT data were not available to the RSMC and, until it occurred, the SWIO was the only TC basin in the world without geostationary satellite coverage. 9b,c), discouraging a track farther south into the SWIO as is usual. display: flex; Source: How we can minimise future cyclone damage – NewsDay Using the definition of forecast skill as (CLIPER DPE − UKMO DPE)/CLIPER DPE × 100%, where DPE is the direct positional error between the model and observed center, the skill scores were 23%, 36%, and 51% for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts. Kirkia (2002) 18(1): 63-71 TREE DAMAGE BY CYCLONE ELI NE IN THE BUNGA FOREST, ZIMBABWE R.M. As a result of the cyclone and preceding rainfall these areas received well above normal rainfall for the period. The latter forecast issued a gale warning for Zimbabwe, when in fact ex-Eline maintained intensity as a moderate tropical storm (winds exceeding 61 km h−1) and had tracked farther west than expected. Heming, J. T., 2001: Summary of tropical cyclone activity and forecasts in the 1999–2000 Southern Hemisphere season. February–March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. J. Climatic determinants and statistical prediction of tropical cyclone days in the southwest Indian Ocean. 9b,c) where the composite displays cool anomalies. At least 172 deaths have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe (OCHA, 27 March 2019). Late on 22 February, ex-Eline passed the Mozambique/Zimbabwe border some 200 km inland from the channel (Fig. Zimbabwe and other regional countries are on high alert for a tropical cyclone building up in the Mozambican Channel which is expected to cause flooding in parts of the country. During La Niña, TC tracks in the tropical south Indian Ocean are relatively spread out, with more occurring in the Mozambique Channel. Since then the remnants of storm have been causing heavy rains over Zimbabwe and Malawi. As a result of Eline and a tropical depression in early February, this region received very heavy rainfall with flooding. Local forecasters should be aware of the precursor synoptic conditions for TC landfall, the previous few months' rainfall, and the current state of the vegetation (and by inference, soil moisture), as well as regional SST anomalies, the orientation of the 28°C isotherm, and ENSO phase. During the 10 days prior to Eline approaching Mozambique, there was increased flux right across the subsequent track region over southern Africa and the SWIO (Fig. In the 1966/67 season, Cyclone Daphne hit southern Mozambique and its Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. This precludes detailed assessment for these countries; however, where possible, comments about local forecasts are made. Int. In this section, we consider the question as to whether the large-scale climatic and ocean conditions during austral summer 2000 also helped promote Eline's anomalous evolution. On the 22ndof February 2000, Zimbabwe was hit by a devastating tropical cyclone with strong winds (Cyclone Eline). With the exception of Jury and Pathack (1991), Jury (1993), and Jury et al. Later, Eline brought wind gusts of 76 km/h (47 mph) to St. Brandon. About 25–40 mm fell over southeastern Namibia on 1 March as the convective activity began to shift eastward with the westerly migration of the cloud band and the subsequent ridging of the next South Atlantic anticyclone behind the front. .item01 { Whether or not Namibian forecasters issued warnings is unknown; however, the public were able to access SAWB forecasts via the media. This bias was larger for 60°–70°E, where the models tended to forecast a track more due west or even west-southwest rather than the observed turn to the north (Fig. 10) were also present in the tropical (subtropical and midlatitude) south Indian Ocean. De Coning, E., , Forbes G. S. , , and Poolman E. P. , 1998: Heavy precipitation and flooding on 12–14 February 1996 over the summer rainfall regions of South Africa: Synoptic and isentropic analyses. Phys, 51 , 101–115. (2003) show that La Niña conditions may increase the risk of TC landfall in Mozambique by enhancing the westward steering flow and that this risk is increased further if local SST anomalies are warm. display: flex; Positive anomalies are shaded. 0000007011 00000 n 0000020370 00000 n Note that Fig. 0000002353 00000 n Reynolds optimally interpolated SST and TRMM SST data both indicate that during the week prior to Eline, SST in the Mozambique Channel was somewhat warmer (29°– 30°C) than that east of Madagascar (about 28°C) in the latitude band corresponding to its track (Fig. 0000003460 00000 n Natl. At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. By 1200 UTC 23 February the storm was centered near 30°E, with severe flooding resulting in southeastern Zimbabwe. 0000024787 00000 n PLOWES Section of Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712, USA SUMMARY After severe wind damage by Cyclone Eline in February 2000, a survey of nearly 200 fallen tree (c) SST anomalies for Feb 2000. margin: 0; 2b,d, 3) (i.e., several days before Eline's first landfall in Madagascar) with its maximum spatial extent on 21 and 22 February (Figs. While crossing the Mozambique, Idai weakened to a tropical storm and entered Zimbabwe. Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. .ajtmh_container { At least 172 deaths have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe (OCHA, 27 March 2019). opacity: 1; These anomalies can significantly impact extreme event frequency and characteristics in southern Africa by modifying the background atmospheric and ocean environment. J. Mauritius uses NWP products obtained from the U.K. Met Office (UKMO) and Méteo France as well as persistence, climatology, and SST observations. Part I: Interannual composite patterns. The above statistics do not include the track after landfall in Mozambique. ENSO and climatic signals across the Indian Ocean basin in the global context. 0000025096 00000 n This La Niña induced very wet conditions over southern Africa prior to the event, leading to favorable soil moisture and land surface conditions for westward penetration of Eline and ongoing convection. 9). This section summarizes the forecasts issued by this RSMC and by Mauritius and discusses the NWP models used. Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. The 1200 UTC bulletin advised that widespread rain was expected over northeastern South Africa with a few heavy falls over the northern escarpment within the next 12–24 h. At 0200 UTC 23 February, the SAWB issued a warning for heavy rains in the far north of the country and highlighted the fact that ex-Eline was moving farther inland. Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. La Niña conditions strengthened again during early 2000 after a lull in mid-1999 and warm SST anomalies evolved near Mozambique (Fig. On the 22nd of February 2000, Zimbabwe was hit by a devastating tropical cyclone with strong winds (Cyclone Eline). Two (Danae, Filao) of the four other ex-TCs in the last 50 years that have tracked unusually far west into southern Africa also occurred during La Niña years (1976, 1988), and in both cases, warm SST anomalies near Mozambique and pronounced SWIO high pressure anomalies led to a strong westward steering current, favoring penetration. Office Forecasting Research Tech. J. (2003) used NCEP reanalyses and an AGCM forced with prescribed SST to find that SWIO TCs show a more zonal track during La Niña years, which significantly increases the chance of TC landfall in Mozambique. Cyclone Idai: Why Zimbabwe's disaster response is a disaster - … 334 0 obj << /Linearized 1 /O 336 /H [ 947 1137 ] /L 543003 /E 39774 /N 88 /T 536204 >> endobj xref 334 26 0000000016 00000 n Given the continuing westward track and advice that there was no longer danger of wind gusts exceeding 120 km h−1, a “no warning” signal was issued at 0930 LT that day; however, the bulletin stressed that strong gusts up to 100 km h−1 and heavy rains would persist for some time. (1999), relatively little work has appeared in the refereed literature. Cyclone Eline, with speeds of 120km per hour, hit Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa and other countries in the region with devastating effects. Less known is that ex-Eline tracked about 2000 km across southern Africa toward the Atlantic (Fig. February 2000 will long be remembered for devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa brought about by Tropical Cyclone (TC) Eline in late February and a tropical depression early in the month. After crossing the 2000–2500-m-high Chimanimani Mountains in eastern Zimbabwe, ex-Eline weakened from moderate tropical storm to tropical depression status. S. Afr. Meteor. Section 4 discusses regional forecasting of this event. This warning remained in effect until the morning of 15 February. Information brochure, Météo France, La Réunion, 12 pp. Developing improved forecasting in southern Africa is hampered by a lack of human and financial resources, limiting or, in many cases, precluding radiosonde and surface measurements as well as running NWP and other dynamical models. Although there were some errors in the predicted speed and intensity of Eline, La Réunion forecasts were generally quite accurate regarding track and landfall position. 5f–h) existed over the region from Botswana east to the SWIO during 24–29 February, thereby continuing to steer the storm westward to Namibia. Information brochure, Météo France, La Réunion, 12 pp. These challenges motivate strongly for innovative solutions, including developing better partnerships with universities, industry, and international operational agencies. 2003) suggest that improved seasonal skill in forecasting the interannual variability in TC tracks and frequency could be used to predict the risk of Mozambican landfall. Zimbabwe has experienced serious floods over the past two decades. Mason, S. J., , and Jury M. R. , 1997: Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: A reflection on underlying processes. 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