Although there were some errors in the predicted speed and intensity of Eline, La Réunion forecasts were generally quite accurate regarding track and landfall position. Cyclone Idai is reported to be the deadliest storm system so far this year — and may be the worst disaster ever to strike the southern hemisphere, according to the UN. J. Atmos. These challenges motivate strongly for innovative solutions, including developing better partnerships with universities, industry, and international operational agencies. Over the mainland, almost all countries do not have any NWP capacity, and the challenges and potential solutions for improved forecasting for the region are discussed. 1998) data. Vitart, F., , Anderson D. , , and Stockdale T. , 2003: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. It is only after it has passed over Madagascar and entered the Mozambique Channel Cyclone Idai hit Zimbabwe during the weekend of 15–17 March 2019, bringing heavy rains and strong winds that triggered flooding and landslides. background: #193B7D; Bull. It resulted in loss of life, damage to homes, fields, schools and roads, and disruption to livelihoods. 2003) suggest that improved seasonal skill in forecasting the interannual variability in TC tracks and frequency could be used to predict the risk of Mozambican landfall. 0000030678 00000 n A further favorable feature for the continued development of the storm was cyclonic wind shear present between the 850-hPa (just above the interior plateau of southern Africa) and 700-hPa levels over the region (not shown). Stammer, D., and Coauthors, 2003: Volume, heat and freshwater transports of the global ocean circulation 1993–2000, estimated from a general circulation model constrained by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) data. At least 172 deaths have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe (OCHA, 27 March 2019). Late summer 2000 was very wet, both in flooded Mozambique and on the arid western side of southern Africa in Namibia. A significant gap exists between Pietersburg and the next station to the north, Harare (18.3°S, 31.1°E), where at most one sounding per day is made, depending on resources. It is argued that by keeping informed of current rainfall, vegetation, and soil moisture conditions over southern Africa, as well as evolving climate signals in the tropical oceans, local forecasters could at least be in a state of heightened alert in advance, since these factors significantly influence extreme weather event characteristics in the region. Contours show moisture convergence (shaded) or divergence (dashed) with an interval of 0.5 g kg−1 s−1, (a) Sea surface temperature (SST) during the week prior to the generation of Eline. Meteor. Further research is needed, but this suggests that improved TC predictability could result if a (Tropical Atmosphere Ocean) TAO-type monitoring array is established in the tropical SWIO. 10) were also present in the tropical (subtropical and midlatitude) south Indian Ocean. Note that less than 5% of TCs occurring in the SWIO over the last 50 years have actually made landfall on the east coast of southern Africa. These anomalies can significantly impact extreme event frequency and characteristics in southern Africa by modifying the background atmospheric and ocean environment. 0000007034 00000 n This section summarizes the forecasts issued by this RSMC and by Mauritius and discusses the NWP models used. 1, 2a). The track forecasts from La Réunion remained quite good during the 3 days that Eline was in the Mozambique Channel. J. Sci, 97 , 80–86. Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. 0000020370 00000 n NWP Gazette, 1 (2) 3–8. It is difficult to make assessments of forecast accuracy over the mainland since, with the exception of South Africa (SAWB), the forecasts are not archived by the various countries and verification data are not available. 1998). This precludes detailed assessment for these countries; however, where possible, comments about local forecasts are made. Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. 0000011444 00000 n 2b,d, 3) (i.e., several days before Eline's first landfall in Madagascar) with its maximum spatial extent on 21 and 22 February (Figs. Section 4 discusses regional forecasting of this event. Need to review Zim disaster response, preparedness – NewsDay … Meteor. 4e), and this continued the next day (Fig. 0000026199 00000 n The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. 0000011421 00000 n 0000002061 00000 n Early in its duration while it was still in the Australian basin, the cyclone produced high waves near Christmas Island, forcing a boat of about 500 refugees to be escorted to port. Although not feasible for southern African operational agencies under current funding, the prototype ECMWF coupled model experiments (Vitart et al. This may be something that could be implemented by forecast offices with more resources, for example, RSMC La Réunion. Figures 1 and 9a suggest that Eline's westward track along about 17°S during 7–17 February followed the 28°C surface isotherm. Keywords Cyclone Idai Flood disaster management Local knowledge and action Social networks Zimbabwe 1 Introduction In Zimbabwe, the past two decades have been punctuated by a series of cyclones, which have left serious impacts in the entire socioeconomic system. February–March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. About 25–40 mm fell over southeastern Namibia on 1 March as the convective activity began to shift eastward with the westerly migration of the cloud band and the subsequent ridging of the next South Atlantic anticyclone behind the front. (a)–(h) Daily interpolated outgoing longwave radiation (contour interval 30 W m−2) from NCEP–NCAR for various days between 22 Feb and 1 Mar. The figure is reproduced courtesy of Mauritius Meteorological Services, which renamed the storm Eline after it crossed 90°E; prior to this it was identified as Tropical Storm Leon, (a) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 0630 UTC 22 Feb; (b) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 22 Feb; (c) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 0630 UTC 23 Feb; (d) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 23 Feb. (a)–(f) Daily averaged geopotential height (contour interval 1.5 dam) at the 500-hPa level from NCEP reanalyses for 18–24 Feb. Shading denotes values in the range 579–585 dam so as to highlight Tropical Cyclone Eline. SAWB rainfall forecasts from the Eta model (using the Betts–Miller scheme) for northern South Africa have been compared with observations for February 2000 by Dyson and van Heerden (2001). 11c. 2002) show positive anomalies of 30%–100% across much of southern Africa in December 1999 and January 2000, indicating that the vegetation was substantially greener than average. De Coning, E., , Forbes G. S. , , and Poolman E. P. , 1998: Heavy precipitation and flooding on 12–14 February 1996 over the summer rainfall regions of South Africa: Synoptic and isentropic analyses. Thus, conditions over the landmass were, together with those of the south Indian Ocean, very favorable for Eline's intensification near Mozambique and penetration 2000 km inland. 0000000871 00000 n Two (Danae, Filao) of the four other ex-TCs in the last 50 years that have tracked unusually far west into southern Africa also occurred during La Niña years (1976, 1988), and in both cases, warm SST anomalies near Mozambique and pronounced SWIO high pressure anomalies led to a strong westward steering current, favoring penetration. Although inland penetration is highly unusual, there were in fact three large-scale precursor features in existence over the region that have previously been identified as favoring a westward track of TCs (Olivier 1993). About 4 h before Eline made landfall (0200 UTC 22 February), the SAWB advised that there was no immediate threat of heavy rain over northeastern South Africa, although heavy rains were possible within a few days. Partial funding from the South African government Innovation Fund is gratefully acknowledged. 6d). Each southern African country has its own meteorological service but only the South African Weather Service runs a regional NWP model (Eta). The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensor package. 0000020393 00000 n (2003) used NCEP reanalyses and an AGCM forced with prescribed SST to find that SWIO TCs show a more zonal track during La Niña years, which significantly increases the chance of TC landfall in Mozambique. Soc., 141–174. Given the continuing westward track and advice that there was no longer danger of wind gusts exceeding 120 km h−1, a “no warning” signal was issued at 0930 LT that day; however, the bulletin stressed that strong gusts up to 100 km h−1 and heavy rains would persist for some time. SSTs in the tropical southeast Indian Ocean near where Eline was generated were 0.5°–2°C above average (Figs. Cyclone Idai, which devastated Zimbabwe’s eastern border districts of Chimanimani and Chipinge in mid March after drowning Mozambique’s second largest city of Beira, has been described by the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley as the biggest natural disaster to hit the region in living memory. Eline also killed 12 people in Zimbabwe and 21 people in South Africa. Dyson, L. L., , and van Heerden J. , 2001: The heavy rainfall and floods over the northeastern Interior of South Africa during February 2000. Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) … February 2000 will long be remembered for devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa brought about by Tropical Cyclone (TC) Eline in late February and a tropical depression early in the month. 1 shows the wind speeds associated with south Indian Ocean storm categories. The government has declared a state of disaster in areas affected by the cyclone, the worst to hit the country since Cyclone 11c). Heming, J. T., 1994: Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. Kirkia (2002) 18(1): 63-71 TREE DAMAGE BY CYCLONE ELI NE IN THE BUNGA FOREST, ZIMBABWE R.M. First, sea level pressure anomalies to the south of the Mozambique Channel were positive during January and February, indicating increased anticyclonic ridging south of Africa and unfavorable conditions for the southward track of tropical depressions. (b) SST anomalies for Jan 2000. At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. Instead, the system moved considerably faster than expected and reached eastern Zimbabwe within 12–18 h. The next three forecasts issued between 1200 UTC 22 February and 0000 UTC 23 February predicted a more rapid weakening of ex-Eline than was observed. Zimbabwe, like its neighbours Mozambique and Malawi, is reeling from the effects of Cyclone Idai, which caused loss of lives and left a trail of destruction. Structure and mechanisms of south Indian Ocean climate variability. During 21–25 February, the low-level flux over southern Africa was dominated by the circulation associated with ex-Eline (Fig. .ajtmh_container { Part I: Interannual composite patterns. 0000025096 00000 n Zimbabwe and Malawi. We thank Dr. Warren Tennant, SAWS, for helpful discussions. Geogr, 21 , 23–50. The 1200 UTC bulletin advised that widespread rain was expected over northeastern South Africa with a few heavy falls over the northern escarpment within the next 12–24 h. At 0200 UTC 23 February, the SAWB issued a warning for heavy rains in the far north of the country and highlighted the fact that ex-Eline was moving farther inland. Vitart et al. Corresponding author address: Dr. Chris Reason, Dept. Like pentad 1, the cyclonic feature is not only intensified relative to the mean but also shifted south over Namibia, reflecting the presence of ex-Eline itself. Climate, 15 , 3096–3103. Soc., 141–174. 0000030655 00000 n Characterised by heavy rains and strong winds, the cyclone is forecast to affect areas in Masvingo, Matabeleland South and southern parts of Manicaland Province. J. Geophys. Relatively strong midlevel easterlies (Figs. TRMM data suggests that this tongue was even warmer than that shown in Fig. Pentads are used to focus on the moisture flux during the evolution of the event and to remove diurnal convective effects. The last section contains the conclusions. J. The move in June 1998 of Meteosat-5 to above 63°E instead of 0° has been of great benefit for TC monitoring since INSAT data were not available to the RSMC and, until it occurred, the SWIO was the only TC basin in the world without geostationary satellite coverage. Andrew Singleton produced some of the figures. tating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Af-rica brought about by Tropical Cyclone (TC) Eline in late February and a tropical depression early in the month. During El Niño, TC tracks tend to concentrate in the 50°–70°E band just east of Madagascar since the high pressure anomalies centered over the eastern Indian/ Australasian sector are unfavorable for TCs farther east. The importance of this steering flow for enhancing the risk of SWIO TC making landfall on Mozambique is consistent with climatology and AGCM experiments (Vitart et al. 1). background: #ddd; Later, Eline brought wind gusts of 76 km/h (47 mph) to St. Brandon. Data elsewhere in southern Africa are even more problematic, and in fact no radiosondes were released in Mozambique or Namibia for this or subsequent years. Heavy precipitation and flooding on 12–14 February 1996 over the summer rainfall regions of South Africa: Synoptic and isentropic analyses. Eline was the longest-lived tropical storm observed in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) to date, had an unusually zonal track, and penetrated exceptionally far inland over the interior plateau of southern Africa. display: flex; Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. Xie et al. 1). Cyclone Idai: Mozambique city of Beira hit by storm - BBC News %PDF-1.2 %���� 1) and contributed significantly to the semidesert region of Section 2 uses National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalyses (Kalnay et al. Together with the hurricane warnings issued on 16–17 February, they helped in reducing damage to eastern Madagascar as Eline crossed the country on 17–18 February. 1991; Jury and Pathack 1991). Anyamba, A., , Tucker C. J. , , and Mahoney R. , 2002: From El Niño to La Niña: Vegetation response patterns over east and southern Africa during the 1997–2000 period. display: flex; The tropical storm, named Cyclone … Contour interval 1°C with SST above 28°C shaded. A local maximum of relative vorticity at 850 hPa is used to identify the center of the TC in the model with a surface fitting technique to locate it accurately. 1 as well as information about local forecasts and observations during Eline. In fact, rapid strengthening occurred during the next 6 h, prompting a hurricane warning to be issued at 1200 UTC with expected landfall within the next 12–24 h. Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. On the 22ndof February 2000, Zimbabwe was hit by a devastating tropical cyclone with strong winds (Cyclone Eline). The UKMO errors in forecasting Leon–Eline were about average for SWIO storm forecasts for the previous season, and the model showed skill over CLIPER forecasts (Heming 2001). 0000035232 00000 n Meteor. 9a, and maxima of 31°–32°C occurred in the eastern part of the channel. During January and February 2000, this isotherm was more zonal in orientation across the south Indian Ocean, yet another important aspect of the SST field in early summer 2000 that influenced Eline's track westward into the southern African mainland. From El Niño to La Niña: Vegetation response patterns over east and southern Africa during the 1997–2000 period. At 200 hPa (not shown), positive anomalies and divergence existed over the eastern/central tropical south Indian Ocean during the 2 weeks before Eline reached 90°E on 8 February. Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) tracked almost 2000 km across southern Africa toward the cool southeast Atlantic and led to substantial rainfall over arid to semiarid southern Namibia (over two standard deviations above average for these two months and the wettest summer since 1976). About 25% of this rainfall was due to the passage of ex-TC Eline 2000 km across southern Africa. Developing improved forecasting in southern Africa is hampered by a lack of human and financial resources, limiting or, in many cases, precluding radiosonde and surface measurements as well as running NWP and other dynamical models. 334 0 obj << /Linearized 1 /O 336 /H [ 947 1137 ] /L 543003 /E 39774 /N 88 /T 536204 >> endobj xref 334 26 0000000016 00000 n Cyclone Eline, with speeds of 120km per hour, hit Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa and other countries in the region with devastating effects. 0000024810 00000 n A preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean. 4b–g, 6b,d). Whether or not Namibian forecasters issued warnings is unknown; however, the public were able to access SAWB forecasts via the media. During La Niña, TC tracks in the tropical south Indian Ocean are relatively spread out, with more occurring in the Mozambique Channel. This tropical trough evolved ahead of a cold front approaching the far southwest coast from the South Atlantic, and these two systems formed a tropical–extratropical cloud band on 29 February and 1 March (Fig. Prog. In mid-March 2019, a devastating cyclone tore through Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, killing hundreds of people so far and causing massive flooding. Only South Africa has an operational radar network for severe weather monitoring (radars in Madagascar and Mozambique had stopped working some time before Eline). These events can be chronicled from the 2000 Cyclone Eline that caused 91 0000015911 00000 n As a result of Eline and a tropical depression in early February, this region received very heavy rainfall with flooding. 2000), the January and February 2000 anomalies show stronger subtropical high pressure in the SWIO, further enhancing the already favorable La Niña westward steering flow toward Mozambique. 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